Heading into the final leg of MPL 2012, all four teams still have a chance of making the finals. However, not every team has the same odds or ease of way. Here’s what each team needs to make the finals.
Incredibles
They could make the finals even if they lose all three of their remaining matches. It helps when you pile up huge wins, early in the tournament! They’ve been dominant and truly Incredible in the fashion in which they’ve dismantled their opposition. A win in one out of their final three games guarantee’s them a spot in the finals.
X-Men
They have surprised some in winning three out of four, and sit pretty in second place at the moment. However, they are not yet out of the woods. On one hand, they could make the finals without winning any of their remaining three games (purely on NRR, in a situation where they could be tied on points with Avengers and Justice League), and at the same time, could end up at the bottom of the table if they do that – lose their remaining three games!
They control their own destiny over their remaining three games, and have multiple roads leading to the finals.
1) The simplest route: Beat the Justice League in the next match of the tournament – on 31st July – and seal a spot for themselves, and the Incredibles, in the finals. If this happens, the Justice League and/or the Avengers can only end up with a maximum of three wins each, falling short of the four wins that Incredibles already have, and X-Men will have.
2) Win two out of their three remaining games, giving them five wins in seven games, and thus sealing a spot in the finals. Along this route, they can lose their game to the Justice League, and still stay on as master’s of their own fate
Justice League
They have lost a couple of nail-biters and are 1-3 after four games. They are still master’s of their own fate, but face a crucial, do-or-die, semi-final like game against the X-Men in theirs and the tournament’s next match – on 31st July. A loss to the X-Men in this match knocks them out of the finals; this also ensures that the Avengers cannot make the finals. The Justice League have the following paths to the final, if they defeat the X-Men in their next match.
1) A win against the Avengers, along with a loss against the Incredibles, and end-up on 6 points. If the X-Men win none of their remaining games, Justice League and X-Men are tied at 6 points and NRR decides who between these two goes to the finals.
2) A win against the Incredibles, along with a loss against the Avengers, and end-up on 6 points. If the X-Men win none of their remaining games, Justice League, X-Men, and potentially, the Avengers are tied at 6 points and NRR decides who between these three goes to the finals.
3) Wins against Avengers and Incredibles gets the Justice League to 8 points. This scenario puts pressure on the X-Men and Incredibles. Here’s why:
a) If X-Men win against Incredibles and Avengers, having lost to Justice League, X-Men will be at 10 points, and guaranteed in the finals.
b) If X-Men win against Avengers, and lose to the Incredibles, X-Men are at 8 points and tied with the Justice League on points, with NRR deciding the other finalist – Incredibles will have their five wins, and are through to the finals.
c) If X-Men win against Incredibles, and lose to the Avengers, X-Men are at 8 points and tied with the Justice League on points. If the Incredibles, in the process, lose to Justice League, X-Men, and Avengers, they will also be at 8 points. NRR will then decide which two of these three teams go through to the finals. This is also the only scenario where in the Incredibles don’t make the finals, if they suffer crushing losses in their remaining three games. However, given their healthy NRR, which is way ahead of the other three teams, it is highly unlikely that the Incredibles miss out on the fina
d) Losses for X-Men against Incredibles and Avengers, will leave the X-Men at 6 points, and out of the finals
e) If the X-Men win against Incredibles and Avengers, they will be at 10 points. In this case, the Justice League will want the Incredibles to lose the rest of the way, allowing them to be tied on points with the Incredibles, and hoping their NRR is better than that of the Incredibles. The Justice League will find it helpful that they play the Incredibles in the last round-robin match.
f) If the Incredibles, win against the Avengers, along with losses against Justice League and X-Men, will be at 10 points. Couple this with scenario ‘e’ above, and the Avengers will be without a win in the tournament, and the Justice League, in spite of winning 4 out 7, including 3 out of their last 3, with 8 points, will fall short of making the finals.
Avengers
They need they most help of all teams to make the finals, but that’s precisely why their path is relatively simple. Any scenario wherein the Avengers make the finals, results in the Incredibles being the other finalist.
For starters, the Avengers need two things, failing which, their campaign is over. One – a win for Justice League against the X-Men. Two – win their remaining games – one each against Incredibles, Justice League and X-Men. If these two things happen, then the following is required:
1) Wins for Incredibles against X-Men and Justice League: This ensures that X-Men have only 6 points – with losses against Justice League, Avengers and Incredibles in their last three games. Thus X-Men and Avengers are tied at 6 points, while Justice League have only 4 points. NRR will determine who between X-Men and Avengers go through to the finals.
2) A win for Incredibles against X-Men, coupled with a loss for Incredibles to Justice League: This ensures that X-Men and Justice League have only three wins each, and in the process tied with the Avengers on 6 points. NRR will determine which one team between X-Men, Justice League and Avengers go through to the finals.
In summary
The Incredibles are in a very comfortable spot. One win or just small losses (not impacting their NRR too much) gets them to the finals.
The X-Men are also right up there, but a little careless cricket and other factors could still leave them watching the finals from the sidelines. However, they still are master’s of their own fate.
The Justice League, are still in it, but face a uphill battle. While they need to win at least two out of their three remaining games, even after winning all three, they’d like either the Avengers or Incredibles to defeat the X-Men – preferably both.
The Avengers are truly, on the brink, but one should never says never. Will they avenge their loses so far? Will they play party spoilers to either the X-Men or Justice League?
The drama unfolds starting July 31st.
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